It’s appropriate for a film that builds to a desperate, outnumbered standoff: For the 2026 Oscar award predictions, it will be Sinners against everybody.
Who’s Going to Win Come Oscar Night 2026?
Ryan Coogler’s masterful film is already a record holder, garnering 16 total nominations. That means it will compete in all but one of the categories in which it theoretically could’ve been nominated — and, with the film raking in trophies at precursor awards, it should be considered a contender in nearly every field.
That includes most of the top awards. The Best Picture race has turned into a sprint between Sinners and One Battle After Another, as Paul Thomas Anderson’s comedy-thriller has emerged as this year’s other top contender.
While the respected auteur shouldn’t be considered a lock (nearly nothing is this year), he’s widely expected to take his first Best Directing prize. Coogler, who also wrote Sinners, is much more likely to claim Best Original Screenplay. (That leaves Best Adapted Screenplay, the rare Sinners-free category, to One Battle — although there’s a small chance that Hamnet could play spoiler.)
The Acting Races Are More Competitive Than Usual
On many an Oscar night, one competitor or another has so handily dominated awards season that an Academy coronation is all but inevitable. This year is an exception, with three fairly competitive races — and one that may be closer than it appears.
That last race: Best Actress, widely expected to be a win for Jessie Buckley, the powerhouse performer who stars in Hamnet. This is as safe a bet as you’re likely to make this year … though Rose Byrne, of If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, has stolen a few trophies from Buckley along the way. Don’t be stunned if Byrne nabs an Oscar — but if you’re filling out a pool, pick Buckley.
In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet was widely expected to earn his first trophy for Marty Supreme until Sinners star Michael B. Jordan took home the prize at last week’s Actor Awards. The Academy’s largest voting bloc consists of actors, many of whom overlap with the Actor Awards voters, so that could be a bellwether. This one is close.
Best Supporting Actress is also tight, as Weapons scene-stealer Amy Madigan has claimed a number of precursor prizes; the Academy loves rewarding a comeback from a long-beloved star. Teyana Taylor, of One Battle, and Wunmi Mosaku, who gave the most memorable of many great supporting performers in Sinners, could also claim the prize. In Best Supporting Actor, two-time winner Sean Penn is favored by many for his unhinged turn in One Battle — though both Stellan Skarsgård, of Sentimental Value, and Sinners favorite Delroy Lindo are in the race.
Okay — There Are a Few Sure Things
Further down the ballot, a few races look fairly certain. Expect Sinners to take the inaugural Best Casting award, based on its formidable ensemble. Frankenstein, a much admired picture that likely won’t break through in any major category, will likely nab Best Costume Design as something of a kind gesture from the Academy; it’ll probably take Best Makeup and Hairstyling, too. Surprise Best Picture nominee F1 has no chance at the top award, but it’ll likely (and justifiably) win Best Sound.
And expect a Golden night: KPop Demon Hunters will probably win Best Animated Feature, and the ubiquitous title track is a favorite for Best Original Song (though, as always, Sinners could pull an upset).
Below, find our predictions in every category. While we fully expect more misses than the average year, we’re pretty confident that these answers will help you win the pool at your Oscar party … unless you’ve got a real cinephile sitting across the couch. (Or another TABLE reader.)
Our 2026 Oscar Predictions
- Best Picture — Sinners
- Best Director — Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
- Best Actress — Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
- Best Actor — Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
- Best Supporting Actress — Amy Madigan, Weapons
- Best Supporting Actor — Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value
- Best Adapted Screenplay — One Battle After Another
- Best Original Screenplay — Sinners
- Best Casting — Sinners
- Best Cinematography — Train Dreams
- Best Costume Design — Frankenstein
- Best Film Editing — One Battle After Another
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling — Frankenstein
- Best Production Design — Sinners
- Best Score — Sinners
- Best Song — Golden, KPop Demon Hunters
- Best Sound — F1
- Best Visual Effects — Avatar: Fire and Ash
- Best Animated Feature — KPop Demon Hunters
- Best Documentary Feature — The Perfect Neighbor
- Best International Film — The Secret Agent
- Best Animated Short — Butterfly
- Best Documentary Short — All the Empty Rooms
- Best Live-Action Short — A Friend of Dorothy
Story by Sean Collier
Featured Photo Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures, One Battle After Another
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